U.N.A.M. - Pumasvs
Cruz Azul
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 10/12/2026, 1:15:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruz Azul · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-3 Cruz Azul
Original prediction
Cruz Azul
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.40 | 27.3% | 33.3% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.2% | 25.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.00 | 46.5% | 40.9% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Cruz Azul
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Cruz Azul has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80