Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UMM Salal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UMM Salal 1-5 Al-Khor
Original prediction
UMM Salal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.5% | 51.3% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.0% | 25.2% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.02 | 22.5% | 23.5% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
UMM Salal
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
UMM Salal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UMM SalalWDLLL
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Al-KhorLLLWD
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
UMM SalalAl-Khor
50.0Attack16.7
66.7Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
64.8Power13.2
1.96xG0.94