Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UMECIT · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UMECIT 1-1 Veraguas
Original prediction
UMECIT
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 37.7% | 37.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.2% | 26.3% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.1% | 36.1% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
UMECIT
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
UMECIT has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UMECITLLLLD
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
VeraguasDDWWD
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
UMECITVeraguas
44.4Attack52.2
56.9Defence55.1
41.7Form52.2
49.0Power54.8
1.26xG1.25