Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Umeå FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Umeå FC 3-2 Vasalund
Original prediction
Umeå FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 42.5% | 37.8% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.1% | 26.3% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.4% | 35.9% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Umeå FC
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Umeå FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Umeå FCDLLWL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
VasalundWLDWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Umeå FCVasalund
0.0Attack100.0
100.0Defence0.0
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power72.0
1.64xG1.68