Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra
Sunday, 28 June 2026Last updated 14:59
Umeå FC

Umeå FC

Home
L
13
Full time
Järfälla

Järfälla

Away
L
Umea Energi Arena
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
Umeå FC(40%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction missed— Result: Järfälla
Win probability
Umeå FC
40%
Draw
26%
Järfälla
34%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Umeå FC
34
Järfälla
9
Defence
Umeå FC
6
Järfälla
27
Momentum
Umeå FC
0
Järfälla
0
Danger (xG)
Umeå FC
0.90
Järfälla
0.00
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Umeå FC)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Järfälla)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Umeå FC)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Järfälla)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Umeå FCUmeå FC
LDW
JärfällaJärfälla
WLWL

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
Umeå FC40%
Draw26%
Järfälla34%

Umeå FC leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Umeå FC head into this in Ettan - Norra fixture at Umea Energi Arena in mixed form (L), while Järfälla arrive in mixed form (L). Umeå FC have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Järfälla over 1 games.

The model rates Umeå FC's attack at 34/100 against a 27/100 Järfälla defence, and Järfälla's attack at 9/100 against a 6/100 Umeå FC backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Umeå FC have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per home match. Järfälla have been excellent on the road, winning all 2 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

Järfälla have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 4.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Umeå FC to win with 40% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Umeå FC 4028%, Draw 2608%, Järfälla 3365%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Umeå FC 0Draws 01 Järfälla
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 1/1
28 Jun 2026
Umeå FC
L13
Järfälla

Recent form

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Frequently asked questions

Who will win Umeå FC vs Järfälla?

GoalVio's model predicts Umeå FC to win with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Umeå FC vs Järfälla?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Järfälla?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Umeå FC vs Järfälla?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more