Ulsan Citizenvs
Siheung Citizen
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K3 League · 10/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Siheung Citizen · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ulsan Citizen 0-0 Siheung Citizen, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ulsan Citizen 1-2 Siheung Citizen
Original prediction
Siheung Citizen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 10:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.32 | 21.1% | 20.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.5% | 28.4% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 53.4% | 51.5% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Projected Score
Ulsan Citizen 0–0 Siheung Citizen
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Siheung Citizen
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Siheung Citizen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20