Ulsan Citizenvs
Gwangju FC
SCHEDULEDSouth-Korea · FA Cup · 8/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ulsan Citizen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ulsan Citizen are 3W-0D-0L in their last 3 (WWW), averaging 2.33 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Gwangju FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 8 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Ulsan Citizen hold a 4.8-point power-rating edge (85.2 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.5% in the FA Cup, while Ulsan Citizen holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ulsan Citizen
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
10.5%
Ulsan Citizen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 2.33/1.00
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80