Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Follo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ull/Kisa 4-2 Follo
Original prediction
Follo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.84 | 32.0% | 35.0% | 3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.2% | 21.0% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.8% | 44.0% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Follo
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Follo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ull/KisaLLLLL
GF 4 · GA 16 · avg 0.80/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
FolloLLDLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Ull/KisaFollo
39.4Attack37.9
0.0Defence30.3
15.2Form21.2
21.6Power32.8
1.78xG1.98