Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Križevci · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Uljanik 3-1 Križevci
Original prediction
Križevci
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.1% | 35.8% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.5% | 28.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 27.4% | 36.1% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–17%
Predicted outcome
Križevci
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
36.1%
Križevci has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UljanikLDLDW
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
KriževciLWDWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
UljanikKriževci
50.0Attack33.3
0.0Defence100.0
16.7Form100.0
24.2Power80.3
1.30xG1.69