Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ukraine 0-0 Hungary, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ukraine 1-2 Hungary
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 35.3% | 35.8% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 31.7% | 30.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 33.0% | 33.3% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Projected Score
Ukraine 0–0 Hungary
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.9%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UkraineLDWLW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
HungaryWDLWW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UkraineHungary
11.1Attack11.1
66.7Defence88.9
44.4Form44.4
43.8Power51.1
1.01xG0.94