Ukraine U21vs
Turkey U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 9/26/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ukraine U21 · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ukraine U21 2-2 Turkey U21
Original prediction
Ukraine U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.5% | 63.3% | 22.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.1% | 20.1% | -7.0 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 32.4% | 16.6% | -15.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.36 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
22.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
Ukraine U21
Probability
63.3%
Model confidence
63.3%
Ukraine U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00