Ukraine U21vs
Croatia U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Croatia U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ukraine U21 1-0 Croatia U21
Original prediction
Croatia U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 18:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 29.1% | 27.3% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 27.1% | 24.7% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 43.8% | 48.1% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Croatia U21
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Croatia U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80