Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vasas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ujpest 3-1 Vasas
Original prediction
Vasas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 42.0% | 35.4% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.9% | 25.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 32.1% | 39.6% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Vasas
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Vasas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UjpestLDWWL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
VasasLWWDD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
UjpestVasas
66.7Attack60.0
40.0Defence73.3
46.7Form53.3
52.1Power60.5
1.44xG1.71