Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Uganda · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Uganda 1-0 Libya
Original prediction
Uganda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.4% | 40.6% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.4% | 29.2% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.11 | 22.2% | 30.2% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Uganda
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Uganda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UgandaDLWWW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LibyaDDDWD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
UgandaLibya
33.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence33.3
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.37xG1.16