Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Uganda · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Uganda 1-1 Congo DR
Original prediction
Uganda
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.37 | 21.2% | 39.1% | 17.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.78 | 52.0% | 33.0% | -19.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Uganda
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Uganda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UgandaWWDLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Congo DRLWWLD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UgandaCongo DR
66.7Attack25.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form33.3
88.7Power43.3
1.55xG0.88