Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Udinese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Udinese 2-1 Venezia
Original prediction
Udinese
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 48.9% | 41.4% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 27.0% | 27.4% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.91 | 24.0% | 31.2% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Udinese
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Udinese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UdineseWDWWW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
VeneziaLLWDL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
UdineseVenezia
33.3Attack100.0
100.0Defence33.3
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power80.3
1.57xG1.36