Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Udinese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Udinese are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Catanzaro are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (WDL), averaging 0.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 8 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Udinese hold a 16.7-point power-rating edge (59.3 v 42.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.3% in the Coppa Italia, while Udinese holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Udinese
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Udinese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.33/1.00