UD Ourensevs
UD Logroñés
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/12/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UD Logroñés · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UD Ourense 0-3 UD Logroñés
Original prediction
UD Logroñés
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.97 | 30.5% | 31.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.5% | 29.6% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 40.0% | 38.6% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
UD Logroñés
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
UD Logroñés has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80