UD Ourensevs
Cacereño
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/27/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UD Ourense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UD Ourense 0-0 Cacereño
Original prediction
UD Ourense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 33.1% | 36.7% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.5% | 29.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 38.4% | 33.5% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
UD Ourense
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
UD Ourense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60