UD Ourensevs
Barakaldo
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barakaldo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UD Ourense 1-0 Barakaldo
Original prediction
Barakaldo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.51 | 25.9% | 31.4% | 5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.8% | 28.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 46.3% | 40.0% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Barakaldo
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Barakaldo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80