UD Logroñésvs
Extremadura 1924
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 8/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UD Logroñés · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UD Logroñés 2-1 Extremadura 1924
Original prediction
UD Logroñés
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 37.1% | 37.4% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.5% | 29.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 33.4% | 32.9% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
UD Logroñés
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
UD Logroñés has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20