UCV Moqueguavs
Sporting Cristal
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 9/13/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting Cristal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UCV Moquegua 1-2 Sporting Cristal
Original prediction
Sporting Cristal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.12 | 22.6% | 25.0% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.9% | 26.2% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 51.5% | 48.8% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Sporting Cristal
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Sporting Cristal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20