UCV Moqueguavs
Cienciano
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cienciano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UCV Moquegua 0-2 Cienciano
Original prediction
Cienciano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.11 | 29.4% | 23.7% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.4% | 25.0% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 43.2% | 51.3% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Cienciano
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Cienciano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 14 · avg 0.40/2.80
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60