UCV Moqueguavs
Alianza Lima
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/25/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza Lima · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: UCV Moquegua 0-1 Alianza Lima, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
UCV Moquegua 0-1 Alianza Lima
Original prediction
Alianza Lima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.18 | 15.1% | 14.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 24.1% | 23.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 60.8% | 62.3% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Projected Score
UCV Moquegua 0–1 Alianza Lima
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Alianza Lima
Probability
62.3%
Model confidence
62.3%
Alianza Lima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20