UCDvs
Longford Town
COMPLETEDIreland · First Division · 10/9/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UCD · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UCD 1-1 Longford Town
Original prediction
UCD
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 53.8% | 45.1% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.4% | 26.8% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.95 | 22.8% | 28.1% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
UCD
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
UCD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UCDWLLDD
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Longford TownDWWLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UCDLongford Town
59.8Attack46.1
52.9Defence55.9
51.0Form47.1
54.1Power51.3
1.72xG1.18