Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
UCD · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
UCD are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Kerry are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 3.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and UCD hold a 6.3-point power-rating edge (56.2 v 49.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.4% in the First Division, while UCD holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
UCD
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
13.4%
UCD has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
GF 11 · GA 18 · avg 2.20/3.60