Ucam Murciavs
Cieza
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/25/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ucam Murcia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ucam Murcia 2-4 Cieza
Original prediction
Ucam Murcia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 51.7% | 43.4% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.3% | 28.9% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.11 | 22.1% | 27.7% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Ucam Murcia
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Ucam Murcia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60