Ucam Murciavs
Alcoyano
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ucam Murcia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ucam Murcia 2-0 Alcoyano
Original prediction
Ucam Murcia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 45.9% | 44.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.8% | 28.4% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.73 | 24.4% | 27.2% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Ucam Murcia
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Ucam Murcia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80