UAI Urquizavs
Excursionistas
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera B Metropolitana · 9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excursionistas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: UAI Urquiza 0-0 Excursionistas, with an exact score probability of 29%.
Prediction record
Final result
UAI Urquiza 1-2 Excursionistas
Original prediction
Excursionistas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.15 | 21.4% | 21.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.5% | 32.3% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.78 | 50.1% | 45.8% | -4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Projected Score
UAI Urquiza 0–0 Excursionistas
Exact score probability: 29%
Predicted outcome
Excursionistas
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Excursionistas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00