Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iran U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
UAE U23 1-3 Iran U23
Original prediction
Iran U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.73 | 24.2% | 34.8% | 10.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.1% | 28.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.93 | 46.8% | 36.5% | -10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Iran U23
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Iran U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
UAE U23WDDWL
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Iran U23WLLDD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
UAE U23Iran U23
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24