Cupa RomânieiCupa României
Wednesday, 29 July 202615:30Updated today
U Craiova 1948

U Craiova 1948

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vs
15:30
Filiaşi

Filiaşi

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
48% confidence
U Craiova 1948(48%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
U Craiova 1948
48%
Draw
24%
Filiaşi
28%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.70 xG for U Craiova 1948 and 1.11 xG for Filiaşi — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Filiaşi holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 2.81 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.

xG for (Filiaşi)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Filiaşi)
3.60
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
FiliaşiFiliaşi
L

Probability breakdown

48% confidence
U Craiova 194848%
Draw24%
Filiaşi28%

U Craiova 1948 leads with 48% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

U Craiova 1948 Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

U Craiova 1948 host Filiaşi in Cupa României. U Craiova 1948 have recorded LLLLDL in recent matches while Filiaşi arrive with a run of WLLWLL. These sides have met 1 times recently, averaging 4.0 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.70 expected goals for U Craiova 1948 against 1.11 for Filiaşi — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Filiaşi have won 2 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While U Craiova 1948 carry the stronger underlying metrics, Filiaşi's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

U Craiova 1948 are generating a clear xG advantage — 1.70 projected against 1.11 for Filiaşi. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.59 is the clearest signal in the model that U Craiova 1948 are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: U Craiova 1948's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Filiaşi defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if U Craiova 1948 fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • U Craiova 1948 have been conceding 2.69 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Filiaşi

Filiaşi

L
vs Oltul Curtişoara
15 May 2026
14

Frequently asked questions

Who will win U Craiova 1948 vs Filiaşi?

GoalVio's model predicts U Craiova 1948 to win with 48% confidence.

What is the predicted score for U Craiova 1948 vs Filiaşi?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in U Craiova 1948 vs Filiaşi?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in U Craiova 1948 vs Filiaşi?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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