Tzeirei Umm al-Fahmvs
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/1/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 0-0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel
Original prediction
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.3% | 47.5% | 9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.7% | 25.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 35.0% | 26.8% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80