Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Twente 1-2 Utrecht
Original prediction
Twente
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 70.5% | 77.1% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.46 | 17.2% | 13.3% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 7.62 | 12.3% | 9.7% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
77.1%
Model confidence
77.1%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TwenteWDWWW
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
UtrechtWLWDL
GF 9 · GA 16 · avg 1.80/3.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
TwenteUtrecht
66.7Attack50.0
66.7Defence0.0
70.8Form29.2
69.2Power29.3
3.65xG0.93