Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Twente 1-0 Telstar
Original prediction
Twente
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 75.6% | 63.5% | -12.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.44 | 14.6% | 19.2% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 9.63 | 9.8% | 17.3% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
63.5%
Model confidence
63.5%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TwenteDWWLW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TelstarDLLWL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
TwenteTelstar
75.0Attack41.7
58.3Defence16.7
58.3Form33.3
63.5Power34.1
2.79xG1.18