Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Twente are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Lazio are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lazio hold a 33.4-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 69.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 62.7% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lazio holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
62.7%
Model confidence
62.7%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00