Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Twente 1-0 FC Thun
Original prediction
Twente
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 79.6% | 52.2% | -27.4 pts |
| Draw | 7.71 | 12.3% | 24.1% | 11.9 pts |
| Away | 11.58 | 8.2% | 23.7% | 15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TwenteDWWWW
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FC ThunLWWLL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TwenteFC Thun
100.0Attack50.0
58.3Defence50.0
58.3Form50.0
67.4Power50.0
2.03xG1.19