Tvervs
Iskra Smolensk
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 2 · 10/25/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tver · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tver 1-1 Iskra Smolensk
Original prediction
Tver
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 71.7% | 64.2% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.10 | 17.7% | 20.2% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 8.50 | 10.6% | 15.6% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.10 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Tver
Probability
64.2%
Model confidence
64.2%
Tver has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40