Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lahti · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Turku PS are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Lahti are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lahti hold a 12.3-point power-rating edge (56.3 v 68.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.6% in the Ykkösliiga, while Lahti holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lahti
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Lahti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60