Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Turku PS · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Turku PS are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while KäPa are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 3.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Turku PS hold a 17.9-point power-rating edge (56.3 v 38.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.2% in the Ykkösliiga, while Turku PS holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Turku PS
Probability
63.2%
Model confidence
63.2%
Turku PS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 8 · GA 17 · avg 1.60/3.40