Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Turku PS · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Turku PS are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while KäPa are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDWL), averaging 2.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Turku PS hold a 17.9-point power-rating edge (56.3 v 38.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.2% in the Ykkösliiga, while Turku PS holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Turku PS
Probability
63.2%
Model confidence
63.2%
Turku PS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20