World · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/4/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Turks and Caicos Islands · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Turks and Caicos Islands 3-0 British Virgin Islands
Original prediction
Turks and Caicos Islands
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 57.4% | 54.4% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 22.8% | 23.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.60 | 19.8% | 22.0% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–09%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Turks and Caicos Islands
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Turks and Caicos Islands has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40