Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Turan · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Turan 1-0 Zira
Original prediction
Turan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.2% | 37.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.78 | 32.4% | 29.4% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 29.4% | 32.8% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Turan
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Turan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TuranDWLDW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ZiraDLWWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TuranZira
66.7Attack100.0
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power88.7
1.38xG1.24