Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Assisense · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Tupa are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Assisense are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Assisense hold a 9.1-point power-rating edge (41.6 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.7% in the Paulista Série B, while Assisense holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Assisense
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
13.7%
Assisense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20