Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tunisia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Tunisia 1-0 Uganda, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Tunisia 1-1 Uganda
Original prediction
Tunisia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 65.0% | 55.8% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 23.0% | 25.8% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 7.58 | 12.0% | 18.5% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.2 pts
Projected Score
Tunisia 1–0 Uganda
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Tunisia
Probability
55.8%
Model confidence
55.8%
Tunisia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TunisiaLLDWD
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
UgandaLWWWL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TunisiaUganda
66.7Attack16.7
100.0Defence66.7
83.3Form33.3
81.8Power41.9
1.53xG0.64