Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tunisia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tunisia 2-2 Botswana
Original prediction
Tunisia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.15 | 79.2% | 48.6% | -30.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.82 | 15.6% | 25.4% | 9.8 pts |
| Away | 17.81 | 5.1% | 25.9% | 20.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.82 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Tunisia
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Tunisia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TunisiaDLLDW
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BotswanaDWLDD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TunisiaBotswana
33.3Attack66.7
66.7Defence33.3
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.37xG1.17