VirsligaVirsliga
Wednesday, 1 July 2026Last updated 10:01
Tukums

Tukums

Home
LL
12
Full time
Super Nova

Super Nova

Away
W
GoalVio prediction
53% confidence
Tukums(53%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction missed— Result: Super Nova
Win probability
Tukums
53%
Draw
23%
Super Nova
24%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Tukums
34
Super Nova
73
Defence
Tukums
14
Super Nova
66
Momentum
Tukums
0
Super Nova
100
Danger (xG)
Tukums
0.90
Super Nova
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Tukums)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Super Nova)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Tukums)
2.25
avg per match
xG against (Super Nova)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
TukumsTukums
LLLLD
Super NovaSuper Nova
WLLWD

Probability breakdown

53% confidence
Tukums53%
Draw23%
Super Nova24%

Tukums leads with 53% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

Match insights

Tukums head into this in Virsliga fixture in mixed form (LL), while Super Nova arrive in mixed form (W). Tukums have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 100% for Super Nova over 1 games.

Tactically, Super Nova hold the edge. Their strong attack (73/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Tukums defence (14/100), while Tukums's attack faces a solid Super Nova backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Tukums have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home match. Super Nova have been excellent on the road, winning all 1 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

Super Nova have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 2 encounters, with 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game, both teams scored in 2 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Tukums to win with 53% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Tukums 5330%, Draw 2270%, Super Nova 2400%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Tukums 0Draws 11 Super Nova
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS in 2/2
1 Jul 2026
Tukums
L12
Super Nova
11 May 2026
Tukums
D11
Super Nova

Recent form

Tukums

Tukums

L
@ Grobiņa
5 Jul 2026
13
L
vs Super Nova
1 Jul 2026
12
L
@ Ogre United
26 Jun 2026
23
L
@ FS Jelgava
21 Jun 2026
14
D
@ Grobiņa
15 May 2026
33
Super Nova

Super Nova

W
@ Tukums
1 Jul 2026
21
L
vs FS Jelgava
25 Jun 2026
15
L
vs Auda
21 Jun 2026
02
W
vs Ogre United
16 May 2026
31
D
vs Tukums
11 May 2026
11

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Tukums vs Super Nova?

GoalVio's model predicts Tukums to win with 53% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Super Nova?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Tukums vs Super Nova?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Tukums vs Super Nova?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more