Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (10%), 0-2 (9%), 1-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tukums 0-2 Riga
Original prediction
Riga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 10.62 | 8.6% | 15.1% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.57 | 13.9% | 18.4% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 1.18 | 77.5% | 66.5% | -11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–310%
- 2.0–29%
- 3.1–39%
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
66.5%
Model confidence
66.5%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TukumsDLWLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RigaWWWDD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
TukumsRiga
47.3Attack92.5
34.4Defence67.7
25.8Form78.5
37.0Power77.8
0.88xG3.33