VirsligaVirsliga
Monday, 27 July 2026Last updated 10:07
Tukums

Tukums

Home
LL
01
Full time
Rīgas FS

Rīgas FS

Away
WW
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
Rīgas FS(40%)
Most likely exact score1-2
Win probability
Tukums
33%
Draw
27%
Rīgas FS
40%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Tukums
34
Rīgas FS
73
Defence
Tukums
14
Rīgas FS
82
Momentum
Tukums
0
Rīgas FS
100
Danger (xG)
Tukums
0.90
Rīgas FS
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Tukums)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Rīgas FS)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Tukums)
2.25
avg per match
xG against (Rīgas FS)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
TukumsTukums
LLLLD
Rīgas FSRīgas FS
WWWWW

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
Tukums33%
Draw27%
Rīgas FS40%

Rīgas FS leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Tukums head into this in Virsliga fixture in mixed form (LL), while Rīgas FS arrive in decent form (WW). Tukums have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 100% for Rīgas FS over 2 games.

Tactically, Rīgas FS hold the edge. Their strong attack (73/100) is pitted against a vulnerable Tukums defence (14/100), while Tukums's attack faces a watertight Rīgas FS backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Tukums have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per home match. Rīgas FS have been excellent on the road, winning all 2 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per away game.

Rīgas FS have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 6.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Rīgas FS to win with 40% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-2. Win probabilities: Tukums 3334%, Draw 2655%, Rīgas FS 4011%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Tukums 0Draws 01 Rīgas FS
Avg goals: 6.0BTTS in 1/1
19 Oct 2025
Tukums
L24
Rīgas FS

Recent form

Tukums

Tukums

L
@ Grobiņa
5 Jul 2026
13
L
vs Super Nova
1 Jul 2026
12
L
@ Ogre United
26 Jun 2026
23
L
@ FS Jelgava
21 Jun 2026
14
D
@ Grobiņa
15 May 2026
33
Rīgas FS

Rīgas FS

W
vs Glentoran
16 Jul 2026
20
W
@ Glentoran
9 Jul 2026
21
W
vs BFC Daugavpils
30 Jun 2026
31
W
@ FK Liepaja
26 Jun 2026
20
W
vs Ogre United
22 Jun 2026
60

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Tukums vs Rīgas FS?

GoalVio's model predicts Rīgas FS to win with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Tukums vs Rīgas FS?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-2.

Will both teams score in Tukums vs Rīgas FS?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Tukums vs Rīgas FS?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more