Tukumsvs
Ogre United
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 9/5/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tukums · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tukums 2-1 Ogre United
Original prediction
Tukums
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.9% | 63.8% | 14.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.9% | 18.3% | -6.6 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 26.3% | 18.0% | -8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Tukums
Probability
63.8%
Model confidence
63.8%
Tukums has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TukumsLLLWL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Ogre UnitedLLLLD
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
TukumsOgre United
48.8Attack32.1
31.0Defence12.3
23.8Form17.3
35.6Power24.2
2.67xG1.19