Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tukums · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tukums 1-1 Grobiņa
Original prediction
Tukums
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 42.8% | 53.2% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.0% | 23.4% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 29.3% | 23.4% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Tukums
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Tukums has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TukumsLWLLL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GrobiņaDLWLL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TukumsGrobiņa
47.8Attack22.2
33.3Defence43.3
25.6Form27.8
36.7Power33.7
1.76xG1.00